Thursday, 29 October 2020

USA Election 2020 Preview and Prediction

Having spent the past two weeks heavily analyzing US Election Polls, 2016 Election data and avoiding the mistakes made four years ago by many analysts; this is my best prediction as of today. There is an important caveat here. Polls are polls, and the only one that matters is the one next Tuesday.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

You might look at my prediction and think I'm being very fair to Trump in some of the states. That is the cavate. I am. It's deliberate. I'm not going to make the mistake we all made four years ago in imposing popular voting data against an electoral system that doesn't operate that way, state by state. If 2016 taught us anything; it is that you don't need to be popular in the majority to win the US Electoral State vote. A candidate just needs to find the correct path that includes winning the right states.

In my electoral prediction I have given Trump every state where he empathically leads, has a marginal lead (sometimes less than 1%), ties, but I have also given him eight out of ten states where Joe Biden leads in seven of them (1 is tied - Maine District 2) and by more than 1%. The only two states I have given Biden are the two where his lead is beyond a 4% margin of error - Pennsylvania (4.3%) and Nebraska-District 2 (7% Biden lead).

In essence, what you are looking at is an electoral map heavily skewed in Trump's favour.
Here are some examples:
IOWA - (Biden leads 0.8%) - TRUMP WIN (+6)
TEXAS - (Trump leads 1%) - TRUMP WIN (+38)
GEORGIA - (Biden leads 1.4%) - TRUMP WIN (+16)
MAINE 2 - (TIE) - TRUMP WIN (+1)
NORTH CAROLINA - (Biden leads 1.7%) - TRUMP WIN (+15)
PENNSYLVANIA - (Biden leads 4.3%) - BIDEN WIN (+20)
ARIZONA - (Biden leads 1.6%) - TRUMP WIN (+11)
FLORIDA - (Biden leads 1.2%) - TRUMP WIN (+29)
NEBRASKA 2 - (Biden leads 7%) - BIDEN WIN (+1)
OHIO - (Trump leads 0.8%) - TRUMP WIN (+18)

In conclusion, I can't find a viable path to re-election for Trump beyond flipping Pennsylvania (+20) or attempting a long drawn out legal challenge in the courts on the basis of early ballot voting. There are simply no states left where the margin is close or likely to change in the coming five days.

So 259 looks about Trump's electoral state-by-state vote limit and that is 'giving' him eight marginal states where he is in deep trouble. A slip up in any, or even just two - take your pick from Texas (38), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16) or North Carolina (15) - could be catastrophic. Remember, I've given him those states for free! Any slip means a minus for him and a plus for Biden.

As an example, let's take the two marginal states where Biden has a 'bigger' small lead - North Carolina and Arizona; the Biden margin of victory would look like 305 (Biden) v 233 (Trump). Just losing Texas (and I don't believe Trump will) would result in a 317 v 221 margin of victory.

Critically for Biden in the past 10 days, his lead in states has remained stable. It has not shrunk like Hilary Clinton's lead did in 2016 in the final days. However, on the flipside, Trump's lead has slipped in several states he is still likely to win - Alaska (down from 8.2 at the start of October to a narrower 5.8%). South Carolina is a similar story (down from 8 to 5.5%). Or Montana (down from 8 to 5.4%). These are states that should not even be up for discussion and are Republican Party Heartlands slipping dangerously back towards the 4% margin of error.

Yet Trump has spent much of his campaign rallies over the past two weeks in states he should comfortably or marginally hold. If he had any sense he would ensconce himself in Pennsylvania and Ohio for the next few days.

And I do not believe, ultimately, and however long a legal challenge could take, that even a heavily leaning Republican Supreme Court is going to overturn what will almost likely be 90 million early voting ballots by next Tuesday. Trump's delusion is that +70% must be Democrat voters. That's a complete fallacy. If Trump pursues this post-election legal strategy, he could well (ironically) end up damaging his own dwindling electoral chances of victory
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More to come in a few days.

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